They can't really blow this, right?
If you believe hard enough, anything is possible.
Yesterday I made the case that if the Cubs had even a decently functional bullpen they would have won the first five games of these seven games in ten days with the Brewers. And then, last night, Jacob Webb went out and for the third time in his last five appearances he blew a save after getting one out away from a win with nobody on base.
So now, the Cubs would have won all six of these seven games, when instead they have won two.
How'd they ever win two?
The loss doesn't really do anything to the Cubs quest to win the NL Central, since that shit was over months ago, but it did cost them a chance to move back ahead of the Phillies into the first Wild Card spot.
The Cubs are three games ahead of the D'bags who currently own the third and final spot, and 3.5 games ahead of the Padres.
The odds of them missing the playoffs altogether are 1.7%
Even for the Cubs that seems unlikely. But then, the odds have never met this bullpen.
Webb has allowed nine runs in his last four innings pitched, blowing all three save attempts.
Before that stretch he had gone 24 games and 24.2 innings without allowing a run. He didn't allow a single run from June 24 to August 22. Nearly two months. Which of his two amazing runs seems more sustainable?
Never mind. We know the answer.
Ryan Zeferjahn was the Cubs' big trade deadline bullpen arm, and he's been terrible. With a 6.23 ERA in 14 games for the Cubs.
Caleb Thielbar has been awful since the beginning of June, with a 5.91 ERA and nine homers allowed in his last 32 innings (that seems low.)
Trent Thornton can't strike anybody out (28 in 46 innings).
Ryan Rolison struggled in August, but he's now thrown 4.1 scoreless innings in September, so maybe there's one guy!
That's not true. The long relievers, Aaron Civale, Colin Rea and Javier Assad have been solid.
One thing going in their favor is that they own the season series tiebreaker over the Phillies (6-1), the D'bags (4-2) and the Padres (5-1). So if they tie with any of them in the standings they get in, or get home field, whatever's at stake.
But knowing how hard it is to win in the playoffs without a great bullpen, much less with this steaming pile of shit the Cubs are rolling out there, you can't help but feel like whether they blow the playoffs entirely or not, they have a good team with absolutely no chance to do jack shit if they do get in.
How fun.
When the Cubs traded for Tyrone Taylor at the deadline it was a shocking acknowledgement that they have an Ian Happ problem. Happ was hitting a ludicrously terrible .156 at the time against lefthanded pitching, and they finally came to the very obvious conclusion that they needed a platoon partner for him.
And the decision wasn't just about hiding Happ from lefties, it was about allowing him to focus on his "good" side and hitting left-handed. In theory you'd bet better production against lefties because Taylor can hit them, and you'd get better production against righties because Happ could get in a groove from the left side and stay there without right-handed at bats screwing him up.
So how'd it work?
Well, Taylor has been amazing with the Cubs. In just 22 games he's already been worth half the WAR (1.2) that Happ's been worth all season. Taylor is hitting .407/.450/.574 overall with the Cubs. He's also an excellent defensive outfielder, so not only do you not sacrifice defense by playing him (avert your eyes, Boog) if anything you get better defense in left than Happ can provide. Against lefties, Taylor is now up to .330/.356/.608 overall this year.
At the time of the trade, Happ was hitting .219/.330/.421 overall. Now that he can avoid most lefties (but not all--Craig keeps putting him into games too early when lefty starters leave and eventually Happ still gets a righty at bat or two when other teams bring in lefties to face him).
Regardless, clearly Happ's now being put in better positions to succeed. So we've seen a big uptick in his production.
Right?
Ehhh. About that. He's hit for a better average. .219 before the platoon started, .226 since. But his on base has actually gone down (.317 v. .330) and his slugging has dropped a lot( .396 v. 421. )
So yeah, he's been even worse.
Ian Happ constantly amazes.
Happ missed Sunday's game in Miami with a sore knee and had to leave Tuesday's game early, most likely with a recurrence of the knee soreness.
What made no sense was that Happ and Taylor were both in the lineup on Tuesday and one was the DH and one was in left, and Craig played Happ in left and DH'd the healthy Taylor. That bit the Cubs in the ass when Happ left the game and Counsell had to move Matt Shaw to left (he also pinch hit Michael Conforto for Taylor, which is bullshit because even though he had some big hits early on, Conforto's hitting .211 since late May). Shaw floundered around in left late in the game taking terrible routes to everything.
Regardless, if Happ has to miss significant time because of his knee (we should be so lucky) the Cubs would be better off with Taylor getting more time.
Granted, the odds of Taylor's Cubs' success against righties going poof if he's getting a lot of at bats against them are pretty high. But, they haven't gotten shit from Happ for a long time.
