Fearless predictions for the 2024 MLB Season
The only prognostication you'll ever need. Oh, that's so sad.

Baseball season opens for real tonight with the Cubs in Texas to take on the defending world champion Rangers (Really? Is that a thing that happened?) I won’t get into how dumb it is to open at night, in a dome, and still have the natural rain out makeup date off the very next day. Well, I guess I just did.
So far, the season previews have featured a look at the Cubs pitchers, position players and a six-way podcast with the cast of morans at Pointless Exercise.



Today it’s time to run down all of my predictions. Some of these were on the podcast and I promise I won’t change any just to hedge my bets (wink, wink.)
Let’s look at my predicted order of finish for each division and each team’s DraftKings over/under.
AL East
1 - Orioles (over 90.5) The Yankees were the trendy pick after they traded for Juan Soto, but then their pitching took a big dump, and so last years’s 101 win Orioles are getting respect again. They keep churning out top prospects, and they finally cashed some in to get Corbin Burnes. They should do something like that again.
2 - Blue Jays (over 86.5) Sure, they are playing with half an infield and could use another pitcher or three, but I like this plucky squad of second generation big leaguers.
3 - Yankees (under 91.5) Getting Soto was great, but planning on playing Aaron Judge in center isn’t, nor is the early onset Tommy John Disease that Gerrit Cole is suffering from. They should have signed Blake Snell and/or Jordan Montgomery, but instead they signed up for a few seasons of the Stro Show. Yikes, why do I have them third?
4 - Rays (over 84.5) At some point they will have to suffer from discarding every productive player when they start to get remotely expensive, right? And it doesn’t help that their best player might never play for them again since he learned that “16 will get you 20.”
5 - Red Sox (under 77.5) You know your pitching is bad when an injury to Lucas Giolito dramatically hurts your chances. But hey, at least they have the Cubs former vaunted pitching infrastructure genius Craig Breslow as their GM, and Theo’s back! Theo’s already put on the gorilla suit and asked if he can just watch Liverpool marched from home until his shares vest.
AL Central
1 - Twins (over 86.5) Are they actually good? I think they are. They finally broke their playoff series losing streak last year at something like 82 (I didn’t look that up) and they play in the worst division in the world. Like Big Ern McCracken, the only threat to them winning the division is them.
2 - Tigers (over 80.5) The next biggest beneficiaries of the dumpster fire that this division has become will be the Tigers who are improved, plucky, and like the US auto industry making a big comeback that will only take about 27 more years. But, they could very well finish .500 or better. Am I going to bet a few bucks on their over? I am! (Ippei told me he’s got a really good feeling about this.)
3 - Royals (over 74.5) The Royals are playing 4-D chess right now. They have a young star in Lil’ Bobby Witt, and another on the make in Cole Ragans, and they have dumped a lot of former (but still currently bad) players and coaches onto the White Sox. It’s genius, really.
4 - Guardians (under 79.5) It’s almost like if you don’t pay your players and you don’t call up your prospects that you make it very difficult to win. I’m going to need to have a talk with Uncle Larry about how he’s doing things over there on the banks of lovely Cuyahoga.

5 - White Sox (under 61.5) One of my favorite things is that every 10-15 years the White Sox are “poised” to win over the baseball fans of Chicago, and every time they are slapped on the forehead with seven flaccid inches of “nope.” Remember when they “won” the Jose Quintana trade and were going to ride that loot all the way to greatness? Well, one of those guys is now pitching for the Padres and the other is still stuck in the netting in left field. This team is so bad and so poorly run that their popular TV announcer decided Detroit was the better bet for happiness and fulfillment.
AL West
1 - Mariners (over 87.5) I’m in the tank for this bunch this year. Their pitching staff is amazing, they have a true superstar in Julio Rodriguez and I know taking down the mighty Astros is going to be a tough task, but I like the cut of their jib (nautical reference.)
2 - Astros (under 93.5) Every time Dusty Baker leaves a team they go right in the crapper. Is it because they miss his groovy wisdom or is it because he leaves a wake of torn ulnar collateral ligaments in their wake? First of all, this is only partly true, because the 2003 Giants were really good, and the Nats won a World Series shortly after he left. OK, fine, it’s bullshit. You caught me. Honestly, I’m just tired of these assholes. They’ve played in the ALCS seven years in a row and eight out of nine. For fuck’s sake, give somebody else a chance.
3 - Rangers (under 88.5) There is a path for them to win it again, but it involves them treading water until Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom get healthy and then those two being really good. So that path is more like a trail of blood. They do have some really good young hitters, though. So they’ll be fun to watch, when they lose 8-7.
4 - Angels (over 72.5) I had to remind myself that they hired Ron Washington to be their manager. What decade is this? They’re going to be bad, but not terrible. Do I think they can win 73 games? Sure, especially if Mike Trout plays in more than the 79 games he’s averaged the last three years. Would I bet on either of those things? Even Ippei warned me not to.
By the way, where did Ippei get this haircut? Is it a Beatles wig?

5 - A’s (over 57.5) Fifty-seven? Holy shit. I know they’re bad, but come on. I think they’ll get to 58 wins, if only because their home field advantage will be opposing teams falling asleep in an empty, sewage filled Oakland Coliseum. This whole thing is a mess, literally and figuratively. Just wait until next year when they’re playing in a tent in Parumph, Nevada.
NL East
1 - Barves (over 101.5) I know Ronald Acuna has already gone to see his orthopedist because his knee has been aching and I know that they are counting on getting innings and wins from Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, but even with all of that, they are just really good. Will it catch up to them? In the playoffs, maybe. In the regular season? Nah.
2 - Phillies (over 89.5) I like this Phillies over even more than the Tigers. Let’s all go bet it. “Ippei, phone it in!” They won’t catch the Barves in the regular season and they won’t really care. They’ve learned to use the wild card round as a tune up and then go HAM in the rest of the playoffs. They are the team the Cubs pretend to be.
3 - Marlins (under 78.5) Kim Ng clearly cursed them when they unceremoniously and wrongly canned her. Now all of their pets…er, pitcher’s heads…er, arms. are falling off! They have a ton of great young pitchers, and most of them are sitting in the lobby of Dr. James Andrews’ office.
4 - Nationals (over 65.5)
I do think they have a few good, young players. But I picked them fourth mostly because of who I picked fifth.
5 - Mets (under 81.5) I just think they’re bad and that they will trade away their few good players as they do a hard reset for 2025. By the way, they should trade Pete Alonso to the Cubs.
NL West
1 - Dodgers (over 103.5) On the podcast this week I laid out my theory as to what is really going on with Ippei and Shōhei. Basically, I think Ippei made the bets and his bookie let him keep trying to get even knowing that Ippei’s “boss” has a billion dollars. At some point, the bookie demanded his money and Shōhei paid it. And then Shōhei found out he could get in trouble for that, so they changed their story to the one where Ippei stole the money. Ippei’s in big trouble either way, (though less so if it’s just illegal bets), but he’s trying to keep Shōhei from getting suspended. For now.
As for the Dodgers? I hope they win 116 games. And lose in the first round of the playoffs.
2 - Giants (over 83.5) Their offseason was pretty underwhelming, highlighted by signing second generation Korean star Jung Hoo Lee (Grandson of the Wind), until the end of spring training when they suddenly landed big deals for Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Everybody in the NL West is playing for second place and a wild card spot, and the Giants moves put them at the head of that pack.
3 - D’bags (over 83.5) Or did it? On the final day of the spring, Arizona got a gift when their very team friendly short-term offer to Jordan Montgomery was accepted. It would be better if their other pitching free agent Eduardo Rodriguez hadn’t yanked a lat in a spring start against the Cubs, but it’s still a great move. My only concern is that Montgomery, who doesn’t exactly look like he has a Beachbody On Demand subscription, will take a long time to get into game shape. Though, I guess, round is a shape.
4 - Padres (over 83.5) The Padres were incredibly unlucky last year. They lost their first 12 extra inning games, they underperformed their Pythagorean win/loss record by TEN games and they still almost made the playoffs with a late surge. Their owner died and they shipped Juan Soto off to Yankees, but then turned around brought in Cease to try to patch their Snell-sized hole in the rotation. They also start seven shortstops in their everyday lineup. Seriously. Seven. (Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth and their actual shortstop Ha-Seong Kim.) Oh, and they let Bob Melvin leave for the Giants and replaced him with this dynamo.

5 - Rockies (under 60.5) You know how they call their cheap seats in the outfield The Rock Pile? I’m pretty sure their roster is under that rubble somewhere.
NL Central
I saved the best for last.
1 - Cubs (over 84.5) Behold the juggernaut that Jed Hoyer has built! The frustrating thing is that this is a pretty good team, but clearly pretty good is good enough for them. They have a gaping hole at DH that JD Martinez could have filled for one year at $12.5 million (instead he got that from the Mets), and they could have propped up their wanting rotation with two relatively cheap years ($25 million per ain’t a lot for a proven playoff winning starter) of Montgomery. The bunch they have should be good enough to win this division, and it will be fun to watch Seiya turn into a star, but it’s another year where the fans’ ambitions are much higher than the organization’s.
2 - Reds (over 81.5) They’re the only real threat to the Cubs this year, and if they would ever bother to go out and get some real pitching they could win it, but they won’t. They will just let injuries solve their position logjams and expose their otherwise lack of depth and play some fun, but ultimately fruitless games.
3 - Cardinals (under 84.5) I don’t get the projections or Vegas’ optimism here. The Cardinals are no damned good. They earned every bit of their last place finish last year and they aren’t all that much better. Sonny Gray’s a good pitcher, but he’s already hurt, and bringing back Lance Lynn and salsa king Matt Carpenter five years after both of them were three years over the hill is just dumb. At least it’ll be fun to watch them suck again.
4 - Brewers (under 77.5) They have a pretty good team on the injured list, otherwise I’d pick them to easily finish ahead of the Cardinals. But they let Corbin Burnes go, Brandon Woodruff’s out for the year, Devin Williams broke his back, their position players aren’t in great shape either. Jackson Churio should be really good. Hopefully, Christian Yelich gets hit by a bus.
5 - Pirates (over 75.5) I should have picked Pissburgh to finish fourth, but I didn’t, so I’m sticking with it. They could be fun with Mitch Keller and Jared Jones in the rotation and Paul Skenes sure to make his debut this year, and Oneil Cruz crushed everything all spring. But, while they have some good young players, they also have a bunch of bad ones. So I don’t feel that bad about picking them fifth.
Playoff teams
AL - Division Winners: Orioles, Twins, Mariners | Wild Cards: Jays, Yankees, Astros
NL - Division Winners: Barves, Cubs, Dodgers | Wild Cards: Phillies, Giants, D’bags
ALCS - Mariners over Jays
NLCS - Phillies over Barves
World Series - Phillies over Mariners
I told you l’m in the tank for the Mariners.
Award winners
MVP
AL - Julio Rodriguez, Mariners - In two seasons he’s averaged 30 homers and 31 stolen bases. He’s 23, so he’s not even at his peak yet.
NL - Seiya Suzuki, Cubs - He was a monster the last two months of the season and I know spring doesn’t matter but he destroyed the Cacti League. If not for his pulled oblique in BP before the first spring game last year his breakout might have happened much sooner. The league will see more than enough of it this year.
Cy Young
AL - George Kirby, Mariners - He finished eighth in Cy Young voting last year with a 3.35 ERA, first in the league in fewest walks per nine innings (0.9) and strikeout to walk ratio (nine to one), and he underperformed his peripherals. His only weakness has been giving up too many homers.
NL - Logan Webb, Giants - He should have won this last year but the Giants were bad and he ended up with a losing record (11-13) despite a 3.25 ERA, a league leading 216 innings and like Kirby he led his league in strikeouts to walks (6.26 to one). He pitched even better in 2022. His team will be better and it’s not like voters didn’t like him last year. He finished second. The guy who finished first is his teammate now.
Rookie o’ the Year
AL - Evan Carter, Rangers - It seems unfair that a guy who raked for a month in the playoffs last year (.300/.417/500) is still a rookie, but Evan doesn’t make the rules. His biggest competition will be that gaggle of rookies in Baltimore and his own teammate, Wyatt Langford.
NL - Jackson Churio, Brewers - We should put an asterisk on this for him because he’s only going to win it because the Cubs are hiding Matt Shaw in the minors.
Manager o’ the Year
AL - Don Mattingly, Jays - Huh? He’s not their manager! Not yet. He’s the bench coach and if they get off to a slow start they’ll fire Bo Duke (John Schneider) and the Don will lead the Jays to the playoffs.
NL - Craig Counsell, Cubs - If writers are going to pretend David Ross didn’t suck, then they’re going to have to act really impressed when Counsell fixes all the stupid shit Ross did to this team.
Fearless predictions for the Cubs
And, finally, five things about this season that I just pulled out of my ass.
- Boog Sciambi is suspended for five games by Marquee when he tries to show off his shoes during a broadcast, plunks his leg up on the desk, splits his pants and flashes the hundreds of Cubs fans watching at home. Just be grateful that the games aren’t in 4K.
- Javier Assad wins 12 more games than Jameson Taillon while filling in for him for most of the season in the rotation. And yes, that means Javier will win 12 games.
- Nick Madrigal is sent to Iowa in May, but the envelope the Cubs mail him in is mis-addressed and the US Postal Service returns him.
- Shōta is awesome and we all love him.
- Christopher Morel hits 36 homers, commits 36 errors and plays an entire game wearing Clark’s hat.

As always, much of none of this is likely to actually happen.
Enjoy the season.