Matt Shaw does not care for the Cubs' timeline
Everybody knows Petecrow will be up soon, but he might not be first



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The return of Cody Bellinger filled a huge void on the Cubs roster and created an eventual scenario where Petecrow Armstrong returns from the minors sometime in May or June and Cody moves from centerfield to first base and Michael Busch (a.k.a. Hands of Stone) moves from first to DH with Christopher Morel at third. Everything fits.
Attaboy, Jed.
Petecrow was formally sent to the minors on Friday, a move that was all but assured when Bellinger re-signed, and one that seems like an obvious choice based on Petecrow’s pretty awful late season at bats last year.
The good news is that Petecrow sure looks like a good player, and he doesn’t even turn 22 until March 25. The fact he was overwhelmed by big league pitching in the inconsistent at bats given to him by El Baldo last September doesn’t detract from his overall expectations.
Petecrow is definitely knocking on the door to get to and stay in the big leagues.
The problem, for him, is that there might be somebody standing in between him and the door.
Petecrow was the Mets’ first round pick in 2020 and if not for falling down and going boom after just six games at St. Lucie in the low-A Southeastern League in 2021 he might already be in the big leagues. Then again, if he’d had more than six career games played in the minors at the 2021 trade deadline, he might not have been traded to the Cubs for Trevor Williams and some guy named Javy Baez.
Petecrow’s ascent through the minors has been impressive, climbing all the way from South Bend in the Midwest League to the majors in just 208 games with the Cubs.
But the guy the Cubs drafted 13th overall last year might just muck it up for Petecrow in the short team.
Matt Shaw is 136 days older than Armstrong and has played 176 fewer minor league games, but he also played three years of major college baseball (well, as major as any Big Ten team can get). And while Shaw isn’t a speedy centerfielder with Gold Glove potential, he’s really good at hitting the ball really fucking hard.
Shaw was a college shortstop whose most natural big league position would likely be second base, but the Cubs have a couple of Gold Glovers playing those positions. But at third, the Cubs have one really good player who is just as likely to hit a vendor in the upper deck with a throw as he is to hit the first baseman’s mitt and then an assortment of oddities competing for the spot. So the Cubs have given Shaw a crash course over there.
Shaw was sent to minor league camp with Petecrow, so neither is making the opening day roster, but he appears to be on the same fast track, and because he’s a much more advanced hitter, it would be no surprise if he’s the one who gets to the big leagues first this season.
Shaw tore up the minors after signing in June and has continued to hit in Cacti League, slashing .250/.313/.586 with two doubles, two triples a homer and eight RBI. He also walked three times to just six strikeouts even though everybody wants to hack at everything in Arizona where the air is thin and the ground is hard.
Petecrow tore up the minors last year and has continued to…oh, no. So far he has 25 spring at bats, just like Shaw (and getting sent to minor league camp doesn’t mean you don’t still get to play in some of the Cactus League games. What it does mean is that you have to start sleeping in the parking lot like Willie Mays Hayes.)

Anyway, Petecrow has not torn it up in Arizona. He’s hit just .160/.333/.280 with three doubles, one RBI, three stolen bases and zero walks to seven strikeouts.
You’ve seen me write before that “everybody hits in Arizona” and it’s true. Well, mostly, I guess. But just like David Bote’s .899 spring OPS doesn’t mean shit, neither does PCA’s .502 OPS.
But, absent a red hot start to the season at Iowa, it could be another factor in who gets to Chicago first this year.
OK, so what are the pathways to Chicago for these two? And we don’t mean I-80 to I-88.
The clearest path is 3b/DH. If Morel struggles in the field early in the season the Cubs might move him back to DH full-time and that opens third, and the non-Shaw options (Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni) get yecch pretty fast.
And, even if Morel proves serviceable at third the Cubs don’t really have a DH. I’m sure Craig Counsell will rotate guys through there, but if the bench is Mike Tauchman, Madrigal, Wisdom, Tauchman and whatever catcher isn’t playing that day, that’s pretty bad.
An injury to an outfielder probably means Tauchman gets more playing time than is prudent for him (his best chance to stick for the entire season is to be used sparingly and given fewer chances to show he’s not that good), opening a bench spot for either of our young heroes.
If Michael Busch bombs at first, that would probably favor Petecrow, as the simplest solution is Cody to first and PCA to center, but Tauchman to center and Shaw to the bench/DH would work.
Anyway, who are we kidding? These Cubs are good at injuring themselves doing the littlest things. Seiya blew out his side in batting practice last spring, Ian Happ and Madrigal have both already just pulled hamstrings, and Morel is likely to chase a dog through the opening in the right field wall and get hit by a car on Waveland.
Some remember that the 1989 Cubs started the season with an outfield of Gary Varsho, Mitch Webster and Andre Dawson and injuries ravaged them so badly that they had to give chances to Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith who just happened to finish 1-2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting as the Cubs won the NL Central in shocking (and super fun) fashion.
You don’t remember that though, because you’re smart and you know that Walton actually made the roster that spring and started in center on opening day with Mitch in left and Andre in right.
But the point still stands. At times during that season the Cubs had to use an outfield of Smith-Walton-Lloyd McClendon and it worked!
There will be plenty of time and opportunity for Petecrow and Shaw to barge their way into the lineup, and just like back then they have a manager willing to use whoever is best for the job on any given day. Though Counsell has at least one fewer metal plates in his head than Don Zimmer did.
Counsell’s current job is even tougher with the injuries the Cubs are already dealing with. In addition to Happ and Madrigal’s hamstring problems and Caleb Kilian blowing out his shoulder (though, I doubt losing him is that big of a problem for Craig at this point), the team’s projected third starter, Jameson Taillon was supposed to start Saturday’s game and his back locked up on him in the bullpen while he was warming up.
Even if that injury is minor, Taillon will clearly not pitch for several days at the least and given that he’s yet to throw in a game yet, there’s no realistic way he won’t miss at least some of the start to the regular season.
The Cubs tried to project optimism by having the four injured players pose for a happy photo together, but the Associated Press pulled it when they determined it had been doctored in some way.
I don’t see it. Do you?

Maybe it’s Happ’s hair extensions? But I’ve heard the scientists over at Restore are doing some great things, so, who knows?
The Taillon injury is a big deal, even if you remember that he only beat two teams with winning records last year in 29 starts, because the Cubs’ rotation seems like it’s a man light even when everybody’s healthy. And Taillon’s no light man.
Will the injury motivate Jed to get on the horn to Scott Boras and offer another pillow contract to either Blake “Don’t call him Ian because that’s not his name even though I call him that a lot” Snell or Jordan Montgomery?
Who needs a potential one-year deal for a two time Cy Young winner or postseason hero when you can just roll with a starting five of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shōta Imanaga, Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad?
There are no problems there. It’s not like Steele pitched 60 more innings last year than he ever had in his life, or Hendricks’ shoulder injury that he returned from last year was so complicated that a surgeon told him he wouldn’t bother trying to fix it (and surgeons love to cut anybody open) and it somehow miraculously healed itself, or that Shōta figures to give up three homers a game trying to blow 91 MPH “'cheese” at the letters past big league hitters, and those are the three guys you figure you can count on.
Seems fine.
Hey, I have no problem with any of those guys. Steele was terrific last year, Hendricks is an all-time Cubs great and Shōta’s cool as hell (and if the homers are mostly solo bombs he’ll probably be OK), but even if Taillon weren’t hurt, this sure seems like a rotation that could have used a proven MLB veteran addition to it, and Drew Smyly and his 5.62 ERA as a starter last year isn’t it. I don’t care how heavy the balls he was tossing at Driveline were this offseason.

Snell appears to be consigned to a one year deal with options and then a fresh crack at a big payday next year, but Montgomery still seems to think he can get a five-year deal. And, if Montgomery has to settle for a one-plus deal he has said he’d like that to be with the Rangers.
There’s still significant risk in signing either even if they both agree to short deals.
Say you sign Snell to a one-year, $30 million deal with a $25 million player option. What you’re really signing up for is that you’ll pay him $30 million if he’s good in 2024 (which would be fine) but $55 million if he’s bad or gets hurt. It’s the same risk the Giants took a couple of years ago with Carlos Rodon.
They paid Rodon $27 million in 2022 and he was very good, going 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 237 strikeouts in 178 innings. He made all 31 starts and opted out of another $27 million in 2023 to sign a six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees. It worked out great for everybody, right?
Well, not the Yankees, at least so far. Rodon got hurt before he ever pitched for them and didn’t finally make his Yankees debut for until July 7. Then he posted a 6.85 ERA in 14 starts.
You can tell yourself that Rodon was a bigger risk than Snell or Montgomery because he had a pretty extensive injury history (and they don’t).
But every healthy pitcher is a pitch away from being a not-healthy pitcher.
The Cubs became the likely favorites in the NL Central when they were able to bring back Bellinger. But even at full strength this isn’t a roster that would stand much of a shot in a five or seven game series with the Barves or Dodgers, or even Phillies. Adding another starter would not only make them even bigger favorites in the division, but it would inch them closer to being a real contender for the shit that really matters.
Snell got a qualifying offer from the Padres so signing him would cost money plus a pick and some draft pool allotment. Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer because the Rangers acquired him in-season from the Cardinals. So he just costs money.
Either way, if your goal is to try to win something, the penalties for signing Snell should not dissuade you.
But if your goal is merely to get one of the six playoff spots in your league and “see what happens” then you don’t even bother.
I wonder which approach the Cubs are taking?
