It's time to give you some (Super Bowl) props
You can bet on some cool and dumb stuff this weekend


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I gave some serious thought to taking the newsletter and podcast out to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. I mean, look how well it worked out for our friends at Chuggo, they went viral twice.
First, they set the standard for wrinkliest tablecloth of all time on radio row.

Poor Bert Breer, he just wanted to talk about how lacrosse is the youth sport of the future and instead he was confused by the guys sitting around Greg Braggs’ bed sheet. It looks like they just wadded it up and threw it in an old Woolworth’s bag that one of them was using as a carry on.
I do give them a pass, though, they’re not experienced table podcasters.
Then, they made news when they asked Seattke rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njiba what his impression of the Bears’ new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was, and he froze because everybody knows Jaxon doesn’t do impressions.
Great stuff. I can’t believe I missed out on a chance to talk reverse mortgages and Medicare Plan B supplements with Joe Namath.
But anyway, let’s talk about what’s really important at the Super Bowl.
Prop bets!
Last year, I cleaned up, and it all started with the coin toss (tails never fails!) which set a great omen and it continued on to Jalen Hurts cashing in my +3500 bet on there being an octopus in the game. For those who don’t know, it’s when the same player scores a touchdown AND the subsequent two point conversion. Eight points. Octopus. Makes perfect sense.
Let’s see what our good friends (and occasional podcast sponsor) Draft Kings has in store for us this year.
You have to start with the coin toss. It’s a dumb bet, but I make it every year as some sort of omen. I lost it in the most recent Rams-Patriots Super Bowl and that (and Jared Goff) sent me into a betting tailspin in that game.
I won it last year and things fell into place nicely.
I always bet tails because, why not, there’s no science to it, right?
Well, maybe there is. In a study at the University of Amsterdam they found that because there’s a slight wobble when a human tosses a coin, the coin is more likely to land on the side that was up when the person tossed it.
Unfortunately we have no idea ahead of time which side Super Bowl referee Bill Vinovich is going to have up when he does it. But that study showed that the side that’s up won out 51% of the time. Also, another study that I can’t find (and might have just dreamt) showed that because the head side weighs slightly more than the tails side on a regular coin the lighter side tends to land facing up more often. I wish I could find that as it would support my “tails never fails” theory. Anyway, both are +100, so I’m sticking with good old tails, nothing beats that.
As for the line, Draft Kings currently has it at Niners -2. I’m not betting against Patrick Mahomes, though. If you take the points and the Chiefs it’s -115, but the moneyline is +100, so I’ll just take that.
But you know who you can bet against?
Matt Nagy.
Look, I have no idea if his headset is plugged into anything. If I were Andy Reid it wouldn’t be, but you can’t deny that the Chiefs second halves on offense have been very Nagy-esque. They averaged less than eight points a game in the second halves during the regular season. That’s incredible.
But surely it’s better in the playoffs, right?
Yes.
Barely.
In their three playoff wins they have scored a total of 24 points in the second half, including none against the Ravens, and that averages out to eight.
So how are we going to put this likely useless knowledge to use?
We could bet the Chiefs moneyline (+105) in the first half and take the Niners -1.5 in the second half, because we know the Chiefs aren’t getting over nine points that half.
Speaking of scoring, here’s one of my favorite bets and I’ve never actually won it, so I don’t know why I do it.
And here’s where Matt Nagy can screw me. Both teams scoring a touchdown and a field goal in both halves is +1000. It seems so easy, but it doesn’t happen nearly as often as you think. Given the stat about the Chiefs second half struggles scoring points, there’s no way you should bet this, right?
Well, what if I told you that you can bet that it happens in just the first half for +340?
And if you think I’m going to fail to resist myself and bet that it happens in both halves, well, you’re most likely right.
This year, thanks to Jalen Hurts and me (probably) the octopus is paying out far less. It’s +1500. The odds of it happening in back to back years can’t be great.
Maybe we’ll sit out the octopus, but I can’t ever resist taking over 2.5 guys to attempt a pass. All it takes is one trick play, a fake punt or a cameo by a backup QB.
Will there be a safety? Yes is +1000. I’ll bet it as an homage to Henry Waechter.

Will there be a pick six? Yes is +475.

Will there be a successful onside kick? Yes is +1500. The NFL has made these nearly impossible to pull off. It could be +20000 and I wouldn’t bet that.
Will there be a missed field goal or extra point? The mere presence of Niners kicker Jake Moody makes this a yes. And yes is -130 because of him.
Will there be a doink? Yes is +700. But here’s what I don’t know. On Draft Kings it says “any kick to hit the uprights” but you can doink it off the crossbar. So would they pay?
Shortest touchdown is +115 to be over 1.5 yards. (-150 to be under). This was a popular bet to be under last year because of the Philly “Brotherly Shove” and it paid off right away was Jalen Hurts scored the first TD of the game on a one yard run. The Chiefs had one later in the game when Isiah Pacheco scored from one yard out.
You can get +145 that a two point conversion will be attempted (good bet) and +265 that there will be a successful one.
The one I could not find that I bet as recently as two years ago was fat guy touchdown. It was +800 for any offensive or defensive lineman to score a touchdown, but I couldn’t find it on either Draft Kings or Fan Duel this year.
But that’s why degenerates have offshore accounts at places like Bovada. Do I? Maybe.
They’ll let you bet on anything.
How long Reba McEntire’s national anthem will be (over/under is a minute thirty-one seconds). You can also bet on whether she’ll wear a hat and what color her boots will be.
You can bet on the direction the first missed field goal sails past the goal posts. +325 that it’s short or blocked seems tempting.
You can bet on how many times the first down chains will come onto the field for measurements. Over 1.5 is +305. You can also bet that the chains will break during the game at +1400 for yes.
You can bet on the result of the first coaches challenge. Stands is +105, overturned is -135.
You can bet on what the first accepted penalty of the game will be. False start is +140. Personal foul is +650. You can go big and bet none at +10000.
You can bet on who will call for the first fair catch (each team pays -115), will a non-QB throw a touchdown (yes is +460), will anyone be ejected for fighting or throwing a punch (yes is +700, no is -1600…they’d both be -1600 if the Lions and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson were playing.)
Either quarterback to catch a pass is +1000. I’m a sucker for this bet.
Either QB to catch their own pass (you think Romo got excited when it happened in the AFC Championship game, wait until it happens in a Super Bowl) is +7500.
But alas, you can’t bet directly on a fat guy touchdown. The best you can do is bet “any other position” on a first touchdown scorer, which given the other ones actually listed probably leaves you with offensive linemen, the holder, the kicker or the punter. This is woefully insufficient.
The Super Bowl is ruined.
OK, probably not.
Anyway, I’m not telling you to bet all of this. We’d all be broke. Pick a few fun ones, throw a few bucks on them and kick back and watch the last Super Bowl for the next ten years without Matt Eberflus’ Bears representing the NFC.
Oh, and congratulations to three of our all-time favorite Bears, Steve McMichael, Julius Peppers and Devin Hester for the announcement that they are al part of the Hall of Fame class of 2024.
Devin was always likely to remain the greatest returner of all-time, but with the rules changes now, it seems inconceivable that anyone will ever come close to what he did.
Mongo’s induction is long overdue. He likely paid for the Bears “only” winning one Super Bowl, but now 75% of their defensive line from that era is in the Hall with Dan Hampton and Richard Dent. Both of those guys are absolutely deserving, and McMichael was every bit as good as they were.
And while Peppers spent 10 of his 17 seasons as a Panther and just four as a Bear he was everything the Bears could have asked for in those seasons. He was an All-Pro twice, finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting in his first season when the Bears nearly went to the Super Bowl and he had to play one season for Marc Trestman, which should earn him extra credit.