If Shōta's out for a while, it's a big problem

The Cubs just finished off a productive 4-2 road trip through Pissburgh and Milwaukee. They should have swept the Pirates but a poor relief effort by Jerry Merryweather and some tough luck defense by Dansby Swanson turned a 3-2 lead into a 4-3 deficit. Yesterday's loss in Milwaukee featured an even worse relief appearance by Jerry, but the Cubs vaunted offense showed no signs of doing anything, so it probably didn't matter.

The only real hiccup on the trip was the sight of Shōta Imanaga hobbling off the mound during both of his starts. On Tuesday night, we were assured that it was "just cramps." Over the years we have never found any reason to take issue with the diagnoses of the Cubs crack training staff.

Shōta was cruising along through five scoreless innings and the Cubs trainers were doing what they always do during games...keg stands in the clubhouse. And they were feeling pretty good about themselves. "We just gave Shōta a shitload of bananas yesterday and everything's fine!"

And then with two outs, Shōta started limping. This time, it's a hamstring strain. Though after the game, Shōta described it as pain in his thigh on the front of his leg.

If you're thinking it's probably a good sign that his pain is in the front of the leg and not the back, that's one way to look at it.

The wrong way.

A hamstring injury that causes pain in the front of the leg when you bend the knee is typically not a mild hamstring strain. It could also be hamstring tendonitis, which is better than actually tearing the hamstring, but will require a fair amount of rest to go away.

But I'm sure the Cubs' trainers know that. I mean, I assume they have Google.

Though, it's a good reminder not to trust the Google AI result that comes up first. For example.

Even better, if you ask it specifically whether Neifi ever ate a rosin bag, you get an actual link to my oral history of Neifi saving the 2005 Cubs' season.

"Well-known story." It even includes the image of the Snowball, which is fun.

With Justin Steele already out for the season with a mild case of Tommy John Disease, and Shōta going to be shelved for at least a little while, it's time for the Cubs to use all of their ballyhooed organizational pitching depth.

Colin Rea has done a nice job in the rotation since Steele went down. In four starts he's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA with 19 strikeouts to only five walks in 19.1 innings.

Wait. 19.1 innings? That can't be right. I mean, that would be less than five innings per start.

Nope. It's right. I know that some managers are leery about having a starting pitcher face the order three times, Craig Counsell seems to be afraid to let Colin face it twice.

The Cubs had to call up Chris Flexen before May 1 or he had an out in his contract that would have allowed him to become a free agent. You gotta lock talent like Flexen down.

He was a 14 game winner for Seattke with a 3.61 ERA.

When was that? Last year? Two years ago?

Five years ago.

Still counts!

He hasn't been quite as good the last couple of seasons. He's 5-23 in 61 starts with a 5.70 ERA with 313 hits and 101 walks allowed in 262.1 innings.

That seems less than ideal.

However, 12 of those starts were for the 2023 Rockies (59-103) and 30 were for the 2024 White Sox (41-121).

You would guess that Flexen, who was 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his five Iowa starts, will get Shōta's starts, if (let's face it, when) Imanaga has to go on the injured list.

But there are other options.

Jordan Wicks has made two disastrous relief appearances for the Cubs this year (13.50 ERA), but at least he's been good at Iowa where he's made five appearances and four starts and he's...oh, no.

0-1 with a 6.38 ERA with 25 hits and nine walks in 18.1 innings.

He wasn't very good at either place last year, either. In ten starts for the Cubs he was 2-4 with a 5.48 ERA and in seven starts at Iowa he was 0-4 with a 5.57 ERA.

Javier Assad was nearly ready to return when he injured his oblique even worse than his original spring training injury.

Connor Noland, a 25 year old, who was a 2022 ninth round pick of the Cubs from Arkansas has pitched fairly well at Iowa, where he's 3-1 with a 3.64 ERA with 28 K's and nine walks in 29.2 innings. He made 25 starts last year between Tennessee and Iowa and was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA.

I have no idea.

If I were a prospect pervert I'd tell you he's awesome and the Cubs should call him up and start his ascent to Hall of Fame.

My guess is that he's just a guy.

The name with all of the buzz is a real guy who is absolutely ramming it up the hineys of the International League hitters.

Cade Horton, the Cubs' top pick in that same 2022 draft has made five starts for the Iowa Cubs.

He's 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA. He's pitched 23 innings, struck out 28 and allowed just 10 hits. He has walked 12, which is less than ideal. But that appears to be his only weakness.

The reality is that had he not gotten injured last year he'd have been called up to pitch in some capacity for the Cubs. He had thoroughly dominated double-A (1.65 ERA in four starts) and was rounding into form at Iowa when he was shut down with a mild lat strain, that actually turned out to be more serious than the I-Cubs trainers thought (the Cubs sure have a type), and then he reinjured it during his rehab so he didn't pitch the rest of the season.

And that, really is the problem. He pitched just 34.1 innings last year, so you wonder how many innings he can realistically pitch this year.

Because the fact is that he's never pitched very much.

He only threw 53.2 innings in his entire college career. They were all in 2022.

At three levels for the Cubs in 2023 (low-A, A, and double-A) he pitched his career high 88.1 innings.

And then, the whopping 34.1 last year.

Since high school he has pitched a total of 199.1 innings.

Huh?

Holy shit.

What do we think the actual innings limit for Cade is this year? It's probably 100, right? I mean, he's never come close to it. You can't really expect a guy who has averaged less than 50 innings a year for his entire adult life to get to 125 or 150, can you?

No wonder they were talking to fat Lance Lynn this spring.

You know what? I'm sure it'll be fine.

Why?

Because it kind of has to be.