Enjoy the playoffs!
All two days of them. (I kid.)
The Cubs are in the playoffs! History suggests it won't last long, so you might want to take advantage of the 25% off sale that goes with it, as soon as possible.
Did you miss last night's REKRAP on the Bears win over the Raiders? And hear how many times I call Maxx Crosby, Mason Crosby. I do think the Bears could block Mason.
In recent years, the Cubs have had opportunities to avenge playoff failures from the past. In 2016, they beat the Giants in the divisional round to get a little revenge for the 1989 NLCS, and then they beat the Dodgers in the NLCS after getting Dempstered by them in 2008. The last time they were in the postseason they faced the Marlins, and all they did was add to their playoff losing streak to them (it's at five, now.) Tomorrow, they get their first chance to make right all that went wrong the first time the Cubs played a postseason series against a fellow National League team.
You don't need a history lesson from me to know what you need to about the 1984 NLCS. But I can summarize it like this.
- The Cubs have never lost a home playoff game to the Padres.
- They have never won a road playoff game against them, but that won't matter this go-around.
- Steve Garvey is an asshole.
- So was Jim Frey.
- Keep Nico's glove away from the Gatorade jug.
- Remind Michael Busch to close his legs.
None of that matters to any of the current Cubs. That fact that they even have a player on the roster who was born then (Justin Turner) is kind of amazing--and maybe not in a good way.
What does matter is that if the Cubs score two runs in game one it will be the first time they've scored that many in a postseason game since game four of the 2017 NLCS against the Dodgers. Since that game they have failed to do so in all four postseason games (all losses) they have played, and been outscored 20-3.
Is that bad?
That seems bad.
The good news is that the Padres starting pitching is in disarray. Nick Pivetta is their only reliable starter, and he'll go up against the Cubs in game one against likely Rookie of the Year, Cade Horton, the best starting pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season (8-1, 1.03 ERA.)
Wait, what's that? Horton is out with a broken rib? A broken rib that he got from coughing too hard while suffering from a bout of bronchitis that he got from teammate Seiya Suzuki?
Oh.
Don't miss the MLB Playoff Preview Podcast with Oleg and Praz. We preview the Cubs and the rest of this year's playoff field.
OK, there's still good news. The Cubs will start lefties Shōta Imanaga and Matthew Boyd in the first two games, and the Padres have been shitty against lefties all year. They OPS just .688 against lefties, compared to .719 against righties.
And, both Shōta and Boyd are pitching well of late. Shōta was 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA in the second half after going 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA in the first half. Oh, wait. That's worse.
Boyd is 4-5 with a 4.63 ERA in the second half after going 10-3 with a 2.34 ERA in the first.
Ugh.
Well, if it goes to a decisive game three, the Cubs can go to Jameson Taillon, who went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA in the second half. Hey! That's really good. I mean, it is Jameson Taillon, but we'll take that.
Much will be made of the Padres vaunted bullpen, and that's mostly because it actually is pretty fucking good.
Their bullpen, collectively has struck out 642 batters in 605.2 innings, while allowing just 458 hits. They strike out 9.6 batters per nine. Their slash line allowed is .208/.293/.326.
They boast a bevy of studs, including former Cub Jeremiah Estrada, who still hates his former club so much that after he struck out the side against them in April he glared up at the box that Jed Hoyer was siting in. At the deadline they traded for A's closer Mason Miller who has struck out 54.5 percent of the batters he's faced this year. What? How is that possible?
But the Cubs bullpen has been really good, too. They have struck out 545 batters in 575.2 innings, which is only 8.5 per nine. And their slash line allowed is .239/.305/.392.
The Padres bullpen is better, but it's closer than you'd think.
Offensively, the Cubs should have a decided edge. They scored 100 more runs than the Padres during the regular season. But, most of the Cubs' damage came in the first half. San Diego actually outscored the Cubs in the second half 319 to 281.
The Cubs' entire lineup is made up of players who posted at least a 106 OPS+, save for rookie third baseman Matt Shaw, who is at 98, but who also has posted an above league average OPS+ since the All-Star Break. There is, of course, the risk that Shaw will be persuaded by the frequent ads on the Cubs' Marquee Sports Network trying to entice dudes to join ICE. If Shaw can't resist the call, then Willi Castro will play third for them in the playoffs, and he has a 46 OPS+ in his 34 games with the Cubs.
But, the Cubs' offensive numbers are, as stated above, pretty puffed up by what they did in April and May. Carson Kelly has a 119 OPS+, but he's been a well-below average hitter since the end of April. The Cubs' potent trio of Kyle Tucker-Petecrow Armstrong-Seiya Suzuki combined to put up some crazy first half numbers. The trio accounted for 64 doubles, 11 triples, 70 homers, 204 RBI and 51 stolen bases in the season's first half. But in the second they were kind of awful. They combined for just 29 doubles (-35), zero triples (-11), 17 homers (-53) and 69 RBI (-135).
And, that's with Petecrow and Seiya getting hot in the final series against the hapless Cardinals.
The Cubs who have been productive in the second half are Nico Hoerner (.318/367/.420) and...Ian Happ? (.268/.371/.495). Lord help us.
The Cubs need to get production out of Tucker (who will almost certainly only be able to DH because of a strained calf), Petecrow and Seiya if they're going to survive this first round.
The Padres have two studs in Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, and they had gotten unexpectedly good production out of Ramon Laureano (121 OPS+ in 50 games after his trade from Baltimore, where he was even better with a 146 OPS+). But he's hurt now. They upgraded their offense in that same trade by acquiring Ryan O'Hearn, but he's been just kinda OK with a 104 OPS+. Xander Bogaerts is freshly back from a broken foot. That won't hurt his middling offense, but his range at shortstop was bad before and this won't help. Luis Arraez led the league in hits again this year, but they're almost all singles. He's defensively challenged anywhere, and has been playing more second base than first lately.
Jackson Merrill has struggled in his second season. Last year he was an All-Star and a Silver Slugger, he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting (to some guy named Paul Skenes) and finished ninth in the MVP voting. But this year's been rough. In the first half his on base average was under .300 (.297), and while that's been better in the second half (.328), his slugging dropped 30 points to .437.
The Padres somehow survived the absence of Jason Heyward after DFA'ing him on May 24. He was lighting it up at .176/.223/.271.
Defensively, the Cubs have few peers, but the Padres boast great defenders at third (Machado), center (Merrill) and right (Tatis.) One of the things they are crazy good at, jumping up and robbing home runs (they have at least EIGHT this year), probably won't be a factor with the Wrigley Field weed strewn brick wall that varies from 11.5 feet to 15 feet high in the corners. Unless one of the Padres has a rocket up their ass they're just going to have to helplessly watch those balls fall onto Banks Boulevard.™
(™-Joe Morgan, 1998)
The matchups are close. The Cubs have the edge in starting pitching and lineup depth. The Padres have a more dominant bullpen. Both teams play good defense, though the Cubs play it better at more positions.
So, what if it all comes down to managerial brilliance.
Craig Counsell's career playoff record is just 7-12 in five postseason appearances in Milwaukee. But those Brewers teams only took a good offense into the playoffs once, and that was the year they made it to game seven of the NLCS. Then again, it doesn't look like he's taking a good offense to the playoffs this year, either.
The Padres are managed by this ball of fire:
His playoff record is much better than Counsell's 7-12. It's 8-12. And last year, the Padres had the Dodgers beaten in the NLDS. Up two games to one they just needed to win game four at home or game five in LA to advance to the NLCS and they likely would have gone on to win the World Series. They had outscored the Dodgers 21-12 in the first three games. And they lost game four (started for the Dodgers by current Cubs' reliever Ryan Brazier), 8-0 and then lost game five 2-0. So they're on a Cubs-esque 24 inning scoreless streak in the playoffs.
The Cubs have been terrific at home, with 49 wins at Wrigley, and home field was important because the Padres were even better at Petco (52-29), but San Diego has struggled on the road at just 38-43. (The Cubs were 42-39 away from home).
This is a pretty even series.
There's no reason the Cubs can't win this. And even if there was, I can't pick the fucking Padres. So kick back and enjoy the games played in the daytime, on ABC, just like they were back in 1984. In fact, maybe ABC will bring back that announcing team of Don Drysdale, Earl Weaver and Reggie Jackson. I mean, one of them is still alive.
You might think that making the playoffs and still having a chance to win a World Series is the most exciting thing going on with the Cubs these days, but you'd be wrong.
Their clutch win on Sunday helped them accomplish something unprecedented. Well, maybe unprecedented. I don't think anybody else has ever cared enough to find out.
The win gave the Cubs a 35-31 second half record. Disappointing? You bet. It cost them a shot at winning the division and a first-round bye. An amazing accomplishment? Uh..sure?
Coupled with a win by the Dodgers, the victory over the Cardinals by the Cubs gave them the fifth best record in the National League in the second half of the season. In 2022 they made a huge deal when they did that, because...nobody knows. But they did it again in 2023 and it was enough to get David Ross fired. They did it yet again last year and it kept Jed from getting his contract extended until this year...when amazingly they did it again.
I guess this is Jed's idea of a dynasty.
