Cubs-Padres, again?
If you didn't get enough of this last year (we did), here's more of it.
The Cubs are experiencing deja vu. Just like last year they will face the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round and if they win they'll get the Brewers in the NLDS again. The only difference is that the Cubs so botched the run-in to the postseason this time that they have to travel to San Diego for the first round, a team they led by six games (with the tiebreaker in hand) just six weeks ago.
The Padres offense was terrible the entire first half of the season. They scored just 379 runs in the first 96 games of the season, that's 3.9 runs per game. In the second half of the season they scored 343 runs in 76 games (MLB doesn't do "halves" well), which is 4.5 runs per game.
Fernando Tatis Jr. slashed .277/.340/.374 in the first half with just five homers. In the second? .307/.385/.610 with 20 homers.
Jackson Merrill was pretty awful in the first half, hitting .219/.278/.350. And in the second? .304/.339/.569.
They got a freakish season out of big pants wearing Ty France who hit .295/.363/.502 with 21 homers, and no discernible platoon split.
Their starting pitching struggled both to get outs and to stay out of the hot tub. They had just three pitchers make more than 11 starts all season for them. Michael King made 32 and was pretty good, with a 3.21 ERA, a 127 ERA+ and 4.3 WAR. Walker Buehler also made 32 starts, but he was very Walker Buehler for most of them, he was worth just 0.9 WAR. And Randy Vazquez made 23 starts at 1.5 WAR.
Nick Pivetta got hurt in mid-April and only returned three weeks ago. He made four good short starts, none more than five innings (which is about all they need with their bullpen) and he allowed just three runs total in his four September starts. His injury was a flexor strain in his pitching elbow, and he was supposed to come back in August, but it flared up on him during his rehab. He's going to start game two behind King. That could go bad, quickly.
What the Padres' biggest strength is, is their bullpen. They have five guys who the Cubs would kill to have as their closer. Of course there's Mason Miller, the square headed fireballer who struck out 129 batters in 70 innings. 70! He strikes out 16.6 batters per nine innings. He has not been as good of late. After posting monthly ERAs of 1.17, 0.00, 0.93 and 0.82 through July, his ERAs have been a more mortal 3.09 in August and 3.55 in September. Ten of the 16 runs he's allowed have come in his last 12 games, and four in his last two.
It's the hope that kills you. Because if it was just Miller you'd like your chances. The problem is that he's fronted by Adrian Morejon and his 145 ERA+, Wandy Peralta (seriously, Wandy Peralta) and his 114 ERA+, Yuki Matsui (225 ERA+) and Bradgley Rodriguez, whose first name isn't a name, but who carries a 188 ERA+ himself.
How does that stack up with the Cubs' bullpen? Well, hold your nose and let's find out.
